Archive for daily gold prices – Page 2

Strong Gains In Gold Prices

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

As I suggested in yesterday’s gold post, we are starting to see a short term rally in prices, as gold managed to cross and settle above the short term moving averages making strong gains in yesterday’s trading session. The upward move was initially triggered by the increased likelihood of the three giant US automakers getting a bailout, and then later in the day helped by the ‘usual suspects’ of a weaker US dollar, stock market rallies and higher crude oil prices. Traditionally gold is seen as a safe haven so any indication of fear in the markets is likely to have a bullish effect on its price.  The short term trend is sideways, medium term trend is bearish while long term trend is bullish.

Support:    $791.69 (14 day moving average)                             Resistance: $832.35 (high of 25/11/08)

Support:    $774.55 (yesterday low)                                     Resistance: $829.62 (high of 24/11/08)

Support:    $752.65 (low of 08/12/08)                                   Resistance: $814.25 (yesterday high)

Gold Market Prices – 5th December 2008

Friday, December 5th, 2008

In line with the last few days, gold saw the same tight range yesterday. Initially gold prices moved up crossing the 14 day moving average, but then retraced, closing lower on the day mainly due to funds liquidating their position. Although on the short term the gold price is likely to remain under pressure the long term picture is completely different with governments forced to increase the borrowings and these actions are bound to reignite the inflation at some point in the future.  The short and medium term trends sideways and long term trend remains bearish. I note this morning however that Merrill Lynch is forecasting gold to reach $2000 some time next year!

Support:    $761.45 (low of 02/11/08)                       Resistance: $819.00 (high of 01/11/08)

Support:    $735.90 (low of 11/09/08)                       Resistance: $791.12 (9 day moving average)

Support:    $715.95 (low of 31/10/08)                       Resistance: $787.72 (yesterday high)

Price of Gold Today

Thursday, December 4th, 2008

Gold was slightly lower on the day moving in a tight range in expectations of ECB’s interest rate decision on Thursday. A combination of factors like continuous liquidation and increasing deflationary pressure which gives no reason to hold gold as a traditional hedge against inflation makes a strong case against the bulls on short term but it’s worth remembering that on the long term government stimulus packages are likely to have an inflationary impact.

The short and medium term trends sideways and long term trend remains bearish.

Support:    $761.45 (low of 02/11/08)                       Resistance: $819.00 (high of 01/11/08)

Support:    $735.90 (low of 11/09/08)                       Resistance: $796.99 (9 day moving average)

Support:    $715.95 (low of 31/10/08)                       Resistance: $783.20 (yesterday high)

Gold Prices – 3rd December 2008

Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008

Gold prices moved slightly higher yesterday as bargain hunters came back into the market after the big drop a day before. It was also helped by a modest decline in the US dollar showing that the inverse correlation with the greenback is still intact. After a failed attempt to higher breakouts the bulls are getting nervous about the metal’s upside potential. The short and medium term trends sideways and long term trend remains bearish.

Support:    $762.25 (yesterday’s low)                       Resistance: $819.00 (high of 01/11/08)

Support:    $735.90 (low of 11/09/08)                       Resistance: $800.26 (9 day moving average)

Support:    $715.95 (low of 31/10/08)                       Resistance: $788.95 (low of 03/09/08)

Weekly Trading Update

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008

Markets pulled their socks up last week, with global equities putting some distance between the November lows and Fridays close. The FTSE 100 enjoyed a 13% weekly gain, while the Dow, S&P500 and Nasdaq are up 17.1%, 19.9% and 18.3% from the November lows respectively. The week started well with traders liking what they saw in the massive bailout of Citi group. The US government effectively moved to guarantee $306bn of bad loans. This, coupled with an allowed dividend of 1 cent per quarter (tiny, but more than many expected), was good news for investors, if not the US taxpayer. Investors also cheered the decision by the US government to buy mortgage backed securities from the state operated Fannie Maw and Freddie Mac. Rumours are also spreading of a plan for a huge pension bailout for S&P 500 companies. Whether this proves to be the case or not, the whispers added to the strong buying seen last week.

Despite the recent sell off in crude oil prices, energy companies still maintain a heavy weighting in most stock indices. Last weeks crude rally certainly helped rather than hindered the performance of equities last week. Light crude found support at $50 and rallied to close the week at $54.43. It is hoped that the announced Chinese interest rate cut will restart the Chinese economy, which was the biggest driver of the oil boom in recent years.

As always, the first week of the month is a busy one on the economic data front. The coming week kicks off with US and UK manufacturing figures, followed by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaking in the evening. Thursday sees the MPC release the official bank rate. Last month they shocked everyone by slashing rates down to 3%, and there is likely to be further cuts this week. Analysts are currently predicting a cut of between 50 and 100 base points down to 2.5 or 2%. The ECB is also expected to cut rates by at least 50 base points, down to 2.75%. Friday brings the all important US Non Farm Payroll figures. Analysts are expecting a drop, but downward revisions to previous announcements could also be an important factor.

Last weeks rally is all the more impressive because it came in the face of yet more dire economic data. This in itself is an encouraging sign, as markets could have easily taken last weeks US durable goods figures and PMI numbers as a cue to sell off significantly. With US markets closed for Thanksgiving, and many traders enjoying an extended holiday, European equities enjoyed some relatively quiet sessions. In fact, on some days last week the FTSE 100 traded within its tightest range since the end of September. Credit markets are continuing to unfreeze, and the VIX Volatility index closed below its 50 period moving average for the first time since the start of September. Implied volatility levels remain high, but at least there are signs of calm creeping into equity markets.

The recent tragic events in India failed to have too much of an impact of equities, with most European stocks moving little in either direction as the crisis broke. It is worth noting the muted reaction in gold prices at this time. Gold is traditionally seen as a safe haven in troubled times, yet despite the traumatic events in India, gold barely moved at all over the period of the crisis. With the implied risk of world governments defaulting on their bonds increasing, one would also have expected gold prices to increase, as investors seek out safe havens for their assets. There are many factors affecting the price of gold, not least the strength of the dollar, but perhaps last weeks lack of reaction is another indicator that volatility is set to decrease further as we approach the last month of a tumultuous year. Just last week, 2008 was set to be the worst year on record for many markets. Although this year will undoubtedly go down in the history books no matter what happens from here, there is a chance that it wont end as it began.

Gold prices – 2nd December 2008

Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008

Yesterday’s large fall in gold prices finally killed off any technical bullish signals as the market fell through the moving averages to close on the top of the sideways range of the previous month. The fall was on the same recession fears that hurt the equity and daily oil prices yesterday, and was aided by the very strong US Dollar. With the technical market now showing a failed rally attempt I feel that gold’s best chance for a rally will come from the safe-haven buyers.

The short and medium term trends sideways and long term trend remains bearish.

Support:    $762.25 (yesterday’s low)                       Resistance: $819.00 (yesterday’s high)

Support:    $735.90 (low of 11/09/08)                       Resistance: $774.74 (40 day moving average)

Support:    $715.95 (low of 31/10/08)                       Resistance: $788.95 (low of 03/09/08)

Daily Gold Prices

Wednesday, November 26th, 2008

Since breaking through the $777 level, buy and entry stops have pushed the price into a new range technically targeting $848.50 on the upside. The 40 day moving average and the previously mentioned $777 level should act as good support some $40 plus dollars below current levels. The huge $60 range on Friday corresponded with the short term recovery in world equity markets and any further strength in The Dow ahead of Thanksgiving could result in a test just short of $850. However any signs of profit taking could quickly see a move back down to the support close to $780.The short term trend is bullish, medium term sideways and long term trend remains bearish.

Support: $802.00 (yesterdays low) Resistance: $848.50 (high of 16th October)

Support: $800.00 (psychological level) Resistance: $844.15 (high of 28th August)

Support: $780.87 (40 day moving average) Resistance: $832.35 (yesterday’s high)