The bearish technical picture continues as we are constantly seeing a pattern of lower lows with daily closes lower than the opening level. The moving averages, including the 100 day, are looking droopy to say the least. We still see the important $85 level as a target for the downside while on the upside a recovery above $121 would be needed to end this downtrend. The short and medium term trends are bearish and the long term remains bullish.

  1. Support: $98.10 (Yesterday’s low) Resistance: $104.40 (9 day moving average)
  2. Support: $98.00 (low of 20/03/08) Resistance: $104.14 (low of 02/09/08)
  3. Support: $96.92 (low of 04/03/08) Resistance: $102.06 (Yesterday’s high)

The Market continued its march southward taking the OPEC cut and the DOE draws in its stride. The current technical picture is bearish and this is backed up by the news from the monthly IEA report which had another downward revision in demand forecasts for this year and next. Traders are in effect saying “It doesn’t matter if there is less oil available because there will not be the demand for it anyway”. OPEC may be saying that they have done their bit to bring down the price of oil but in reality it’s the effect of the high price on economies which has curtailed demand and led to the current downtrend.
DOE Stock Figures (Change in millions bbls)

Crude -5.8 (-4.8) Distillate -1.3 (-2.2) Gasoline -6.5 (-4.3)