Archive for Trading News & Tips

Profit from Currency Strength & Weakness

Tuesday, June 5th, 2012
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As forex traders we only need to understand (and recognise) currency strength and weakness in our timeframe of choice. So buy when it’s weak (oversold) and sell when it strong (overbought). The fatman indicator is great for pointing us in the right direction and highlighting some great trades. It’s also excellent for keeping us out of trades!

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Forex Analysis Cable 4th June 2012

Monday, June 4th, 2012
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Looking for a turn on the British Pound. Against the USD it has fallen over 1000 pips since end of April. Now deep in oversold territory so expect to see some consolidation before a strong move higher.

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GBPJPY – Moving Lower

Wednesday, February 1st, 2012
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This pair still moving lower.

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FX street video – GBP/JPY looks set to move lower

Friday, January 27th, 2012
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Move lower has duly occured.

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Euro Shorts Feeling The Squeeze!

Thursday, January 19th, 2012
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As euro continues to defy its critics – equities ticking up & Chinese new year next week – it’s a really great time for trading!

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A Great Trade On the Aussie Dollar

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012
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Aussie is now best currency to watch for market view on risk. Great trade today on aussie dollar as equities continue to move higher for the time being.

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Risk to hurt record long dollar positions?

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012

We are back. Back to half-truths, a little despair and hope. The Euro agenda has not changed, leaders are out to save their beleaguered union, their currency and years of hard grafting. The US will spend the next 10-months deciding who has the honor of leading their once proud economy. China, again, will have to charter its country towards a soft landing; the rest of us are relying on this! If either of the regional policy leaders do not get their objectives-in-tow, then the global house of cards is in danger of tumbling down.

Despite a shortened trading week, European leaders will return to work looking to buy time for the Spanish and Italian governments to take control over their debt and rescue the EUR from fragmentation. The highlight of the remaining four trading sessions will be the employment situation in North America, to be reported on Friday.

The first half of this year is expected to be dominated by European leaders struggling to hold the EU together, threatened by credit downgrades, emerging splits in the union and a looming recession that could compound rising debt. The hurdles and obstacles are daunting, this will allow capital markets and investors to nervously push the EUR on some of the crosses to new record lows.

So far, risky assets have started the year strong, with the USD selling off. A rebound in China’s manufacturing and services PMI’s last month have added to the positive tone.The antipodean currencies have climbed for a fourth consecutive day this morning against the dollar amid signs of increased manufacturing output around the world. Last night, Aussie manufacturing expanded for the first time in six-months (50.2), further proof that the global economy is strengthening after German, Chinese and UK factory output reports beat economist estimates already this week.

This morning, the EUR is again testing close to the mid-1.30’s. Thus far, Eastern European sales have failed to cap the topside and have triggered the running of some stop-losses. Will sustaining these gains prove troublesome above the option expiry levels? The EUR remains high on investors radar and is expected to underperform against the risk sensitive currencies (CAD,AUD,NOK and SEK) over the coming days as fiscal uncertainty in Spain and Italy cloud investment judgment. Obviously, further risk rally will hinge on the US data today. Positive readings from ISM, construction spending and FOMC minutes should kick-start a new risk rally leg for the ‘interest rate’ sensitive currencies. Remember, the market is very long dollars after the “turn”, the squeeze is preferable!

A Happy New Year to all my fellow traders – it’s going to be very interesting year with lots of volatility and lots of trading opportunities. Will be posting details of our fab new Hawkeye trading software which will help to keep us all on a straight and righteous path!

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The two halves of the eurozone are locked in a broken marriage

Sunday, October 30th, 2011
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“The euro is the engine of destruction” – why the North/South divide in Europe will be the cause of its ultimate demise (but not just yet!!)

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Bossi Italian Women & the Euro!!

Thursday, October 27th, 2011
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Wrote this post at the crack of dawn this morning since when eurusd has broken above 1.41 and heading towards 1.42 on back of much better than expected data from the US. So many commentators have written off the US but be prepared for a dramatic reversal, albeit one surrounded by massive volatility.

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EURO Doom Mongering Persists

Tuesday, October 18th, 2011

There is no backing down from ‘this’ persistent EUR decline. The market risk premium that was aggressively applied last week feels in danger of giving it all up and then some. Sentiment remains vulnerable allowing event risk to dominate on a disappointing of potential ‘under delivery’ at the Brussels Summit this weekend.

Overnight brought a host of further stress indicators to the fore. What’s bad for China is bad for Europe. Data revealed that Chinese growth figures fell short of expectations coupled with some disappointing earning from Euroland is again boosting market volatility. With Germany trying to manage market expectations, Moody’s is offering to do the same by putting France on a three-month notice. They have indicated that ‘pressure from debt metrics’ could leave the country with a negative credit outlook, even a downgrade, and this only months ahead of important elections.

Also getting traction this morning is Nouriel Roubini believing, pragmatically so, that the Eurozone requires the dollar to fall below $1 for a EU crisis solution and that the ECB needs to slash rates. None of these are new ideas, it’s perhaps the sensitivity of timing in such an important week for the vulnerable asset classes.

It goes to show how much rhetoric affects sentiment, as the weekend approaches expect this rhetoric to intensify.

Great roundup from Oanda & how markets can be affected by rhetoric (mostly empty) but which can gain traction so very quickly. All we can say about markets at present is that they are highly volatile & febrile and will continue to be so for the foreseeable future.

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