RSS (c) The Financial Times Ltd 2010

  • Positive employment data lift US stocks February 3, 2012
    US stocks hit six-month high on news that unemployment fell to a three-year low in January with banks among the main beneficiaries […]
  • Stocks surge on strong US jobs data February 3, 2012
    Equities and commodities benefit from robust US employment data with the FTSE All-World index at its best levels since start of August […]
  • Volatile banks push Europe higher February 3, 2012
    Rapid gains for Société Générale and Crédit Agricole helped the FTSE Eurofirst rise for the fourth consecutive session on Friday […]

RSS (c) The Financial Times Ltd 2010

  • Stocks surge on strong US jobs data February 3, 2012
    Equities and commodities benefit from robust US employment data with the FTSE All-World index at its best levels since start of August […]
  • Dollar rises as jobs boost dents QE3 speculation February 3, 2012
    The dollar strengthens after US data show a larger than expected rise in employment with investors taking this as a positive signal on the economy […]
  • Riot halts Egypt bourse rally February 3, 2012
    Stock exchange index drops 2.2 per cent following deadly riots, following 28 per cent rise on January. […]

RSS (c) The Financial Times Ltd 2010

Archive for October 2008

Weekly Economic Calender

By anna · Comments (1)
Monday, October 27th, 2008

Monday October 27th:

UK – Tentative – Nationwide
GE – 09:00 – Ifo Business Climate.
EU – 09:00 – M3 Money Supply Y/Y.
EU – 09:00 – Private Loans Y/Y.
EU – 11:45 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.
US – 14:00 – New Home Sales.

Tuesday October 28th:

UK – 00:01 – BOE Financial Stability Report.
GE – 07:00 – GfK German Consumer Climate.
UK – 11:00 – CBI Realised Sales.
US – 13:00 – S&P/ CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y.
US – 14:00 – CB Consumer Confidence.
US – 14:00 – Richmond Manufacturing Index.
US – Tentative – Treasury Sec Paulson Speaks.

Wednesday October 29th:

GE – ALL- Prelim CPI m/m.
UK – 09:30 – Net Lending to Individuals M/M.
UK – 09:30 – Mortgage Approvals.
US – 09:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders M/M.
US – 09:30 – Durable Goods Orders M/M.
US – 14:35 – Crude Oil Inventories.
US – 18:15 – FOMC Statement.
US – 18:15 – Federal Funds Rate.

Thursday October 30th:

GE – Tentative – Retail Sales M/M.
GE – 08:55 – Unemployment Change.
EU – 10:00 – Consumer Confidence.
UK – 12:30 – Advance GDP Q/Q.
US – 12:30 – Advance GDP Price Index Q/Q.
US – 12:30 – Unemployment Claims.
US – 14:35 – Natural Gas Storage.

Friday October 31st:

UK – Tentative – GfK Consumer Confidence.
EU – 10:00 – CPI Flash Estimate Y/Y.
EU – 10:00 – Unemployment rate.
US – 12:30 – Core PCE Price Index M/M.
US – 12:30 – Employment Cost Index Q/Q.
US – 12:30 – Personal Spending M/M.
US – 12:30 – Personal Income M/M.
US – 13:45 – Chicago PMI.
US – 13:55 – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
US – 13:55 – Revised UoM Consumer Expectations.

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My Trading Newsletter – 20th October 2008

By anna · Comments (0)
Sunday, October 26th, 2008

Newsletter for w/c 20th October. 2008.

If you didn’t think it could get any worse then I am sorry to be bearer of bad news but Tuesday 21 could be make or break day for the markets when $360bn worth of defaulted CDS contracts are due for settlement - this article not only describes this in more detail but also explains why the coordinated bank bail outs have, so far, failed to restore a modicum of calm to the markets. My own view is that the wild whipsawing we have been seeing will continue until the end of this month at which point we will also have to consider the effect of the US Presidential Election.

As a very general rule when the market is going down into an election it favours victory for the party not in office. If it is going up into the election, it favours the party in office. The US Presidential Election can also have an effect on the US Dollar – again in general a democratic win has tended to be positive for the dollar whilst a republican win has nearly always led to dollar weakness. A good indicator for the dollar is the dollar index which is used extensively in the currency market as a sentiment indicator. The ticker code is USDX and being a futures index is quoted on the NYBOT (New York Board of Trade). The index represents the relationship between the US dollar and six major currencies: the Euro, Japanese Yen, British Pound, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Krona and Swiss Franc. As you can see from the chart it has been in decline pretty much since 2000 – the start of the Bush term and has only latterly started to regain some ground.

There are various reasons for this recovery including the dramatic fall in the price of oil – some 50% since its high in July. Earlier this year I wrote extensively on the oil price in my blog: http://www.making-bread.co.uk/myblog as an example of how an asset bubble can just gather so much momentum that traders and investors lose all sight of logic and reason. How far the price will now fall will depend in part on OPEC and whether there is a coordinated move to cut supplies. “The Axis of Diesel” article from Saturday’s Times newspaper  summarizes the current geo political and economic position very neatly.

You might wonder why I am focusing on issues which could be considered too global and perhaps irrelevant to traders outside of the US or the forex market. However, the old adage that when America sneezes we all catch a cold (or in this case pneumonia) still holds and with the global banking and financial systems resembling a cat’s cradle global has suddenly become very local. My own view is that regardless of your country, market or trading style a basic understanding of the economic fundamentals as well as the geo political dynamics can only help you make better trading and investing decisions.

Trading Tip: The financial world is awash with indicators, news and opinion both fundamental and technical which can overwhelm even the most seasoned of traders and investors. All indicators are either lagging or leading and while they may work some of the time they won’t work all of the time. One of the best reference books I have come across on fundamental economic indicators and how they impact the various markets is by Bernard Baumohl: The Secret of Economic Indicators. The book covers both the US as well as the most important world economic numbers. Enjoy!

Good luck and good trading.

Anna

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My Weekly Trading Newsletter

By anna · Comments (0)
Monday, October 20th, 2008

Newsletter for w/c 13th October 2008: “Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction” is a famous Buffett aphorism and one with which many are familiar. What may not be so familiar is that he first coined the phrase back in 2003 in his annual letter to shareholders. He went on to argue that these highly complex financial instruments were time bombs which could harm not only their buyers and sellers, but the whole economic system. Having experienced the most frightening and hectic week since the second world war we can say that these bombs have now well and truly exploded. Exchanges as far apart as Brazil and Russia simply closed down, as governments attempted to stem the panic and fear. Interest rate cuts, bank bailout plans, the rush to safe haven assets all continued while the markets raged. As mentioned before economic data is irrelevant as the markets will continue their hysteria until at least the end of this month as governments and regulators try to prevent a complete meltdown of the global economy.

Despite the financial firestorm it is important to understand that derivatives such as futures, options and credit default swaps were originally developed to hedge risks in financial markets – that is – to buy insurance against market movements. Most traders and investors are familiar with futures and options but maybe less familiar with credit default swaps or CDSs. These were pioneered by J P Morgan back in the mid 1990s as insurance on debt, guaranteeing the holder his money in the event of a company going under. Typically they are bought to protect default on bonds, corporate debt and mortgage securities. The cost is priced as a percentage of the debt, and is measured in basis points (one-hundredth of a percentage point). Just like any other insurance product the riskier the debt the more expensive to insure that debt. By the middle of 2007 the market had grown to$45 trillion.

Crucially CDSs can also be used to measure the financial health of a bank or company. For example the price of a 5 year CDS in HBOS shot up when rumours began circulating that the bank was in trouble, the price only falling once it was announced that the Bank was to be taken over by Lloyds TSB. Until their recent collapse the three riskiest banks in Europe were the Icelandic trio of Landsbanki, Glitnir and Kaupthing. CDSs in Landsbanki were being priced at 3,000 basis points – the market view was that in order to insure £10m of debt investors would have to pay an additional £3m! It is hardly surprising these banks had to be nationalized by the Icelandic government.

Unfortunately, the problem does not end here because the entire CDS industry may be on the point of collapse. The reasons? First, unlike the banking sector, options and futures, this industry is unregulated and what started as a quick way to make stupendous amounts of money when economies and markets were booming, has now become a financial liability which will change forever the financial and political landscapes. As contracts were traded no one was making sure that the original holder actually had the assets to pay up in the event of a default and the fear now is that the insurers themselves may not have enough money to payout anyway. AIG’s recent write down of $11 billion was the biggest loss in the company’s history.

The impact of this problem will be felt by all of us because if this insurance disappears or becomes too expensive any kind of lending will become even more difficult to obtain for individuals and companies alike. The banking crisis is therefore far from over. It explains the frantic attempts of governments to shore up their national banks and the banking system with taxpayer funds. The restoration of confidence and, more importantly, the banks’ coffers has superseded any criticism of this plan of action. There is no Plan B. As individuals our priority must be to protect and preserve – shame this advice was not heeded by the banks, regulators and ultimately the politicians.

Trading Tip: In the current volatile markets all traders should consider using fixed odds trading to speculate on the markets. For those of you unfamiliar with this technique details can be found at my fixed odds trading site.

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Weekly Financial Calendar

By anna · Comments (0)
Monday, October 20th, 2008

Good morning everyone and welcome to another challenging week of trading – below are the key dates for this week’s announcements and as you will see there are some “tentative” speeches pencilled in due to the current economic climate so be careful when you open and close positions this week!!

Monday October 20th:

GE – 08:30 – PPI M/M.
UK – 08:30 – Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
UK – 08:30 – Public Sector Net Borrowing.
US – 14:00 – Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies.
US – 14:00 – CB Leading Index m/m.
US – 16:45 – FOMC Member Kroszner Speaks.

Tuesday October 21st:

 UK – Tentative – BOE Governor King Speaks
UK – 10:00 – CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US – Tentative – FOMC Member Stern Speaks.

 Wednesday October 22nd:

UK – 08:30 - MPC Meeting Minutes.
 US – 14:35 - Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday October 23rd:

 FR – 06:45 - French Consumer Spending M/M.
EU – 08:00 - Current Account.
UK – 08:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
UK – 08:30 - BBA Mortgage Approvals.
EU – 09:00 - Industrial New Orders M/M.
UK – Tentative - MPC Member Gieve Speaks.
 US – 14:00 - HPI M/M.
 US – 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.

Friday October 24th:

ALL – ALL- Opec.
GE – 06:00 - Import Prices.
 FR – 07:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR – 07:00 - Flash Services PMI.
GE – 07:30 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE – 07:30 - Flash Services PMI.
EU – 08:00 - Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU – 08:00 - Flash Services PMI.
UK – 08:30 - Prelim GDP Q/Q.
UK – 08:30 - Index of Services Q/Q.
US – 14:00 - Existing Home Sales.
US – 13:55 - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.

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Finance Market News – Weekly Update

By anna · Comments (0)
Monday, October 13th, 2008

It could be argued that even with the wild gyrations of the past few months, many were still in denial about the state of the financial markets. Last week, fear was rife as traders, investors, and the man on the street could no longer deny the magnitude of the global sell off. Some commentators are referring to it as the great crash of 2008. Certainly, there have been bigger one day falls in percentage terms, but the scale and unyielding nature of the October’s sell off of is unique. You only had to take your eyes off a market like the Dow Jones for a second, and it will have moved 100 points in either direction. This level of volatility is almost unheard of. For days markets have continued to show signs of complete surrender, days that may have become capitulation low points in the past, yet the sell off still continued. People looking for the bounce that often follows such waterfall sell offs, have so far unfortunately been too early and quite wrong.

The VIX options volatility index, often referred to as the ‘fear gauge’, has spiked to levels even higher than those registered during the height of the dotcom bubble collapse. This is a broad decline with no one sector out on its own in leading declines. Financials are down of course, but so too is the energy sector, as oil prices continue to fall. Last year around the quiet period and intermediate high of August, the FTSE had a daily range of around 60 points. Last week it was moving that much every 15 minutes. These are extraordinary times and many technical indicators are flashing at levels never seen before. At best, central governments are hoping that the coordinated rate bomb and localized interventions have stopped Armageddon, there is now no hope of the UK, US, Irish and Spanish economies avoiding recession.

This week’s planned economic announcements will continue to play second fiddle to the shocks and surprises that await us all. US financials will be grateful for Monday’s Columbus Day bank holiday, though the stock market is still open. Aside from this, there are important announcements from the UK to start the week with PPI input on Monday and CPI on Tuesday. Wednesday brings a raft of US data with US PPI and retail sales. Bernanke is also due to speak in the late afternoon.

Although the sub prime mess originated in the US, this has always been a global credit crunch. European banks were some of the biggest buyers of sub prime securities, so when the crisis developed, any one of the world’s major banks could have been holding toxic assets. This in turn led us to the historical coordinated action by the world’s central banks today. Each government has attempted to deal with the crisis with specific interventions in their area but all eyes are on this weekend’s G7 conference for further coordinated international activity.

It could be argued that Britain and the US have been able to take more significant moves because they have their own central bank and perhaps crucially a central treasury, something the Eurozone lacks. With problems in Ireland, Spain, Greece and Italy increasing, the pace of a recession across the Eurozone could run at different speeds, as did the preceding period of growth. The differing needs of each individual state could put further pressure on the Euro against the Dollar. The Dollar has recovered 16% from the lows back in March and looks set for further weakness.

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My Weekly Newsletter – A Sideways Look At The Markets

By anna · Comments (0)
Sunday, October 12th, 2008

Good Evening

October 2008: “These capitalists generally act harmoniously, and in concert, to fleece the people, and now that they have got into a quarrel with themselves, we are called upon to appropriate the people’s money to settle the quarrel.” Abraham Lincoln – 11th January 1837 eloquently sums up the passing of the Paulson plan last week to bail out the banking system. Similar action is now taking place in Europe as more banks continue to fail or threaten to fail.

Last week all equity markets fell to multi year lows. Some made these on Tuesday, others on Friday. In Europe, the Netherlands AEX, London FTSE and Swiss SMI indices all fell to their lowest levels in over three years on Tuesday while the German DAX fell to its lowest level in over 2 years on Friday October 3rd.

In the Pacific Rim Australia All Ordinaries made a double bottom – level not seen since December 2005. Hong Kong lowest since July 2006 and the Nikkei fell below 11,000 for the first time since 2004. Nifty of India too fell on 30 September to 3715, its lowest price since April 2007. The US markets fared even worse – the Dow has actually fallen 4000 points since last year.

These falls were also mirrored across markets including commodities (lack of demand now coming through).Silver, oil, palladium (used in the car industry) were badly hit. It seems that traders and investors are cashing in everything and pouring money into safe havens such as Treasuries.This would also partly explain the recent surge of the dollar. However, this current financial turmoil has still some considerable way to go and will probably gather pace and whip up even more fear as it goes along leading to,not a recession but, a full blown depression.

Difficult as it may seem it is vital to try and remain detached from the fear and hysteria and try to understand, not only how the financial world arrived at this point, but also the likely outcome of this meltdown. Sadly the omens for a speedy resolution to the crisis are not particularly good as we are already one year into this downturn. However, two interesting indicators to use to gauge emotion and sentiment of a market are the VIX and Coppock.

The VIX – the fear indicator reached unprecedented levels last week although it began to send out warning signals as far back as May/June 2007 -http://www.making-bread.co.uk/trading-article5.htm and an important part of the trading toolkit. Meanwhile the Coppock indicator is useful as means of establishing when it is safe to re-enter the fray – http://www.making-bread.co.uk/trading-article1.htm.

This week’s economic data will simply continue to confirm that recession is not merely a threat but a reality.The BOE and Bank of Japan have to decide on interest rates. BOJ is expected to keep rates at 0.5% while the BOE is coming under increasing pressure to cut sooner rather than later. Under normal circumstances interest rates would influence the currency market. With an interest rate differential of almost 5% one would think traders would be buying the British Pound against the Japanese Yen. In fact the exact opposite has happened with the charts indicating possible further falls for the Pound.As this pair correlates strongly with the Euro Yen, both have similar chart patterns.Both pairs can also be highly volatile but very profitable if traded correctly.

Finally, one of the most interesting aspects of last week was the price of gold which, given its status as the ultimate safe haven, did not rise as expected.Indeed the gold chart shows that the price may even fall in the short term.Interestingly the CBOE recently launched the Gold Vix to measure market expectation of the volatility of gold prices http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7afb1bfe-5ff9-11dd-805e-000077b07658.htmlTrading Concept:
Volatility is not to be feared but understood and, where possible harnessed. Good luck and good trading.
Anna

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Trading News Weekly Update

By anna · Comments (0)
Thursday, October 9th, 2008

This is my newsletter from the 29th September which I hope you find enjoyable and interesting. If you would like a copy direct to your inbox, please just sign up on the making bread site via the link at the top of the page.

As markets around the world lurch from crisis to drama and back again we are still waiting the outcome (if any) of the Paulson plan to save the US banking system and economy thereby avoiding a 1929 style crash and depression. However, while grown men weep in Washington, banks continued to fail – Washington Mutual in the US and Bradford and Bingley in the UK, it is safe to say that this maelstrom is unlikely to end any time soon as the nightmare on Wall Street moves decisively onto Main Street.
Last week’s massive swings in the markets may have provided plenty of copy but in reality many are missing the point: it is the chronic lack of trust between banks which is the cause of this mayhem, resulting in a mass flight to quality. Interbank rates are dysfunctional – when a bank would rather earn less than 4% from a central bank than 6%+ from the market then there is something seriously awry.

A recap on last week’s banking woes started with Denmark’s Central Bank rescuing that country’s 6th largest bank, EBH, its second rescue in 10 weeks after two others agreed to be bought out last week.By Wednesday Gulf Arab States’ Central Banks said they were ready to provide more liquidity, if needed in the parched interbank market. Kazakhstan established a $5b rescue fund for p class=”MsoNormal”>

The solution to this unfolding catastrophe is to throw money at the problem much like the Japanese banking crisis of late 1980s – explained in detail at www.yen-to-dollar.com.Then, as now, this is only likely to prolong the agony as well as killing off enterprises and companies which are basically sound but whose credit dries up.

Once again this week’s economic data is almost irrelevant even though important Q3 numbers are expected:Japan’s Tankan Survey, UK PMI, ECB interest rate decision and US Non Farm Payroll on Friday. Each of these would normally be expected to move both equity and forex markets. However, given the fear and paralysis together with a number of holidays worldwide, market conditions will be both thin and highly volatile. At the centre of this storm is the fate of the US dollar with its implications to all markets and countries. Setting aside the long held desire of the like of Venezuela, Iran and Russia whose dearest wish is to see an end to the dollar, the fate of the US dollar is inextricably linked to all other markets. An agreement in Washington this weekend may see a dollar bounce and equity markets respond in kind, however, this may prove only a temporary reprieve.Ambrose Evans-Pritchard who is always an interesting read explains in his latest blog post how there is now a very serious risk of a run on the dollar.

In the forex market the dollar bell weather pair is the dollar yen.At the moment it is the Japanese banking system which is perceived as being insulated from the general crisis and the yen has strengthened accordingly.For forex traders 104 is now pivotal.For those of us who can remember the days when risk was seen as good it was the relentless selling of the Japanese yen in the carry trade pairs which led to many a profitable trade – oh happy days!
The public’s faith in the great and the good to get us out of this mess is both touching and probably misplaced and just remember that in the end it’s always the taxpayer who picks up the bill.

Trading Concept:

As traders and investors it is vital we understand correlation and how different markets and instruments relate and move in respect of one another.Two examples:In forex the euro dollar and dollar swiss are almost 100% negatively correlated – going long on both euro dollar and dollar swiss would make no sense at all (or even short on both) as they would cancel each other out.Currently the correlation between oil and the dollar is inverted – a weak dollar has led to a massive increase in the oil price – however this relationship is more fluid and may change in the future – my latest blog http://www.prices-oil.org gives a daily update and comment on the oil price. It’s also available in a Chinese version. Good luck and good trading – kind regards Anna.

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Trading and Investing News

By anna · Comments (0)
Thursday, October 9th, 2008

As many of you know, I now publish a weekly newsletter – if you would like a copy “hot off the press” please just visit the making bread site and follow the link at the top of the page and I will add you too my mailing list – I normally write this Sunday evening and email on Monday morning, giving a round up of the week’s news and topical tips and information on various markets. I propose to publish these here as well every week, but a week or so later, so if you would like the next one please just sign up ( it only takes a minute) Here is the first one written two weeks ago.

Welcome to my newsletter in which I hope to offer some insight into the financial markets at a time when the future has never appeared so confusing and uncertain. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, is this “the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning?”The FTSE closed the week just 66 points down while the S&P 500 actually managed a small profit. However, the closing figures do not even begin to tell the whole story with the FTSE trading in a 521 point range and posting its best one day rally in history on Friday. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it moved over 1000 points from Thursday’s low to Friday’s high, an achievement that represents a “first.”

The catalyst for this bout of turmoil was the bail out of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This raised hopes of a similar bail out of Lehman Brothers. To say that investors were shocked when Lehmans was not only denied a bailout, but filed for insolvency would be an understatement. Lehmans collapse sent shockwaves throughout equity markets sparking a domino effect that knocked over Merrill Lynch, AIG and HBOS .

Even the most seasoned investors had a hard time steadying themselves last week as the newswires continue pump out dark news, and once in a generation headlines. Fear was understandably widespread with the Russian stock market suspended indefinitely after dropping 10% in an hour.Investors saw little choice but to fly to quality. The flood of assets transferring to short term US Government Treasuries, forced the yield on three month Treasury Bonds down to their lowest level since the great depression. Crude Oil and precious metals also exhibited powerful reversals. From a low of 90.51 on Tuesday, Crude Oil soared to close the week at 104.55. The rallies in Gold and Silver were just as spectacular and probably represented record (or near-record) gains in 1-2 days.

However, it was the two emergency announcements on Wednesday and Thursday that had the greatest impact last week. After central banks dropped a coordinated liquidity bomb overnight on Wednesday, global equity and credit markets initially seemed to show a very cautious reaction. The greatest reaction seemed to come from the Feds plan to create a giant bad bank that would absorb many of the toxic subprime assets held by banks. This measure accompanied with a crack down on short sellers, seemed to have hit the nail on the head for the financial institutions, with the root cause of the credit crunch (sub prime assets) being attacked.The rush to blame short selling for this current catastrophe ignores the role played by the regulators who abolished the uptick rule in July 2007.

The week’s headlines were dominated by Ben Bernanke’s testimony before congress starting on Wednesday. However, planned economic announcements are now secondary to surprise headlines or emergency measures.When markets move by whole percentage points in a matter of minutes, anything can happen, and probably will.

Even though equity markets bounced last week, the panic at one stage reached such an extreme level that the yield on 3 month US Treasuries reached 0.02% on Thursday, returning just $2 on a $10,000 investment. Investors weren’t just running to safety, they were blindly staggering to anywhere with no exposure to the credit markets. When investors press the panic button as they undoubtedly have done, there is potential for a counter rally to set in the short term as we saw on Friday. However, looking at large crashes from 1987, 1997, 1998, 2000 and 2001, the follow on reaction is typically a range bound market.

A small footnote to the current situation:A few weeks ago month the MPC’s (Monetary Policy Committee of the Banks of England) pension fund liquidated its portfolio of equities, property and private equity holdings and transferred the whole lot into government gilts. The cynicism took my breath away.You will soon be able to post your thoughts and comments in my soon to be launched forum.

Trading Question Answered:

I’m often asked about COT (Commitment of Traders) Data and how this can help us trade and invest.First the raw numbers for this can be found at: http://www.cftc.gov/marketreports/commitmentsoftraders/index.htm.The data is easy to chart using excel but if you don’t want to do this yourself other readers have recommended: http://www.timingcharts.com/. Second COT data is a sentiment indicator, which when taken with other signals can help us trade and invest across a range of markets. A fuller explanation of the COT report can be found by clicking on the link.

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Categories : Currency Trading News, Investing
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Key Trading Announcements This Week

By anna · Comments (0)
Monday, October 6th, 2008

Below are the key trading announcements for this week. As I write the FTSE 100 is currently down 200 points, so who said shorting doesn’t pay! I hope you followed my advice in my currency blog to short both the GBP/USD and EUR/USD – both trades are showing significant profits but I’m not ready to close out just yet, althought the GBP/USD may be forming a double bottom. On the oil contracts these are again short with a target of around $85. I have just posted my weekly update on the fixed odds trading blog . The key announcements this week are as follows :

Monday October 6th:

EU – 08:30 – Sentix Investor Confidence.
US – 17:30 – FOMC Member Fisher Speaks.
UK – 23:01 – NIESR GDP Estimate.

Tuesday October 7th:

 UK – Tentative – Halifax HPI M/M.
 UK – 08:30 – Manufacturing Production M/M.
UK – 08:30 – Industrial Production M/M.
GE – 08:30 – Factory Orders M/M.
EU – 13:30 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.
US – 15:00 – FOMC Member Stern Speaks.
US – 16:00 – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
US – 18:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes.
US – 19:00 – Consumer Credit M/M.
US – 23:01 – Nationwide Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday October 8th:

FR – 06:45 - Government Budget Balance.
 FR – 06:45 - Trade Balance.
UK – 08:30 – BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y.
EU – 10:00 – Industrial Production M/M.
US – 11:45 – FOMC Member Plosser Speaks.
US – 14:00 – Pending Home Sales M/M.
UK – 14:30 – CB Leading Index M/M.
 US – 14:35 – Crude Oil Inventories.
Thursday October 9th:

 GE – 06:00 - Trade Balance.
GE – 06:00 - German WPI M/M.
EU – 08:00 - ECB Monthly Bulletin.
EU – 08:30 - Trade Balance.
UK – 11:00 - MPC Rate Statement.
UK – 11:00 - Official Bank Rate.
US – 12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
 US – 12:30 - Wholesale Inventories M/M.
 US – 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.
US – 17:30 - FOMC Member Stern Speaks.
Friday October 10th:

FR – 06:45 - French Industrial Production M/M.
 US – 12:30 - Trade Balance.
US – 12:30 - Import Prices M/M.
US – 18:00 - Federal Budget Balance.
ALL - ALL – G7 Meeting.

EU – Europe wide
FR – France
UK – United Kingdom
US – United States
GE – Germany

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Categories : Trading News & Tips