Archive for September 2008

Financial Calendar – 29th September 2008

Monday, September 29th, 2008

Just a quick post to provde you with the economic calendar for this week with the main announcements here in the UK, in Europe and in the US. I have just posted over at fixed odds trading for the week ahead so if you would like details please just click on the link. I am also now writing a weekly newsletter which is free but on a sign up basis, so if you would like a copy of that please just visit the main making bread site and follow the link at the top of the home page trading & investing.

I’ve also just posted my latest weekly tip for a fixed odds bet on the fixed odds site so another reason to visit! For the oil traders amongst you, don’r forget the new oil trading blog which is updated daily before 8.30 each morning – this is available at prices oil - there is also a Chinese version.

As always good luck with your trading – regards Anna

Monday September 29th:

UK – 08:30 – Mortgage Approvals.
UK – 08:30 – Net Lending to Individuals M/M.
EU – 09:00 – Consumer Confidence.
US – 12:30 – Core PCE Price Index M/M.
US – 12:30 – Personal Spending M/M.
US – 12:30 – Personal Income M/M.
UK – 23:01 – Personal Income M/M.

Tuesday September 30th:

GE – Tentative – Retail Sales M/M.
GE – 07:55 – Unemployment Change M/M.
UK – 08:30 – Current Account.
UK – 08:30 – Final GDP Q/Q.
UK – 08:30 – Revised Business Investment Q/Q.
EU – 09:00 – CPI Flash Estimate Y/Y.
US – 13:00 – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y.
US – 13:45 – Chicago PMI.
US – 14:00 – CB Consumer Confidence.
EU – 16:00 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.

Wednesday October 1st:

EU – 08:00 – Final Manufacturing PMI.
UK – 08:30 – Manufacturing PMI.
UK – 08:30 – Index of Services Q/Q.
EU – 09:00 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.
EU – 09:00 – Unemployment Rate.
US – 11:30 – Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y.
US – 12:15 – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
US – 14:00 – ISM Manufacturing PMI.
US – 14:00 – Construction Spending M/M.
US – 14:00 – ISM Manufacturing Prices.
US – 14:35 – Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday October 2nd:

UK – 06:00 – Nationwide HPI M/M.
UK – 08:30 – Nationwide HPI M/M.
EU – 09:00 – PPI M/M.
EU – 11:45 – Minimum Bid Rate.
US – 12:30 – ECB Press Conference.
US – 12:30 – Unemployment Claims.
US – 14:00 – Factory Orders M/M.
US – 14:35 – Natural Gas Storage.

Friday October 3rd:

GE – ALL – Holiday: German Unity Day.
EU – 08:00 – Final Services PMI.
UK – 08:30 – Services PMI.
UK – 08:30 – Housing Equity Withdrawal Q/Q.
EU – 09:00 – Retail Sales M/M.
US – 12:30 – Non-Farm Employment Change.
US – 12:30 – Unemployment Rate.
US – 12:30 – Average Hourly Earnings M/M.
US – 12:30 – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

EU – Europe wide
FR – France
UK – United Kingdom
US – United States
GE – Germany

Trading News Update

Monday, September 22nd, 2008

Good morning everyone and what a week last week!! – markets in turmoil, short selling suspended, Lehman Brothers gone to the wall, LLoyds taking over HBOS – an amazing week and one which is unlikely to be repeated for some time. However, in my view we have not seen the end of the banks that are about to collapse and I expect more to follow both here and in the US.

Below are the major announcements for this week which I hope you find useful. On the currency markets the USD is weakening again and expect this to continue for the next few weeks after the period of relative strength so buying small long positions is the order of the day. If you would like a market analysis for the week please follow the link to my fixed odds trading blog which gives a full analysis of the week and outlook for the week ahead. I have also recently started an oil trading blog ( in both English and Chinese ), which is updated every morning with the oil price outlook for the day. If you would like details please just follow the link here for the UK version of prices oil, and the Chinese version of prices oil here. As always many thanks for all your kind commments about the sites and do keep in touch.

Monday September 22nd:

EU – 07:15 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.
US – 15:30 – FOMC Member Fisher Speaks.

Tuesday September 23rd:

FR – 06:45 – Consumer Spending M/M.
FR –
07:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR –
07:00 – Flash Services PMI.
GE –
07:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU –
08:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
UK –
08:30 – BBA Mortgage Approvals.
UK –
09:00 – Industrial New Orders M/M.
EU – 13:00 – Belgium NBB Business Climate.
US –
14:00 – HPI M/M.
US –
14:00 – Richmond Manufacturing Index.
US
– Tentative – Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies.

Wednesday September 24th:

GE –
08:00 – Ifo Business Climate.
EU – 08:00 – Current Account.
UK –
10:00 – CBI Realized Sales.
US –
14:00 – Existing Home Sales.
US –
14:00 – Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies
US –
14:35 – Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday September 25th:

GE –
06:00 - GfK Consumer Climate.
EU –
08:00 - M3 Money Supply Y/Y.
US – 12:30 - Core Durable Goods Orders M/M.
US –
12:30 - Durable Goods Orders M/M.
US –
12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US –
12:30 - New Home Sales.
US – 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.
US –
16:00 - Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies.
US –
17:00 - FOMC Member Warsh Speaks.
US –
22:00 - FOMC Member Fisher Speaks.
US –
23:45 - FOMC Member Plosser Speaks.

Friday September 26th:

EU – ALL – Prelim CPI M/M.
US –
12:30 - Final GDP Q/Q.
US –
12:30 - Final GDP Price Index Q/Q.
US – 13:55 - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
US –
13:55 - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.

EU – Europe wide
FR –
France
UK –
United Kingdom
US –
United States
GE – Germany

Comments (0)

Key Trading Announcements – Week 15th September 2008

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Economic Calendar for week 15th – 19th September 2008
PLEASE NOTEAll times GMT not BST. BST is +1 Hr.
Monday September 15th:

EU – 09:00 – ECB President Trichet Speaks
US
– 12:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index
US
– 13:15 – Capacity Utilization Rate
US
– 13:15 – Industrial Production M/M

Tuesday September 16th:

UK –
08:30 – CPI Y/Y
UK –
08:30 – Core CPI Y/Y
UK –
08:30 – DCLG HPI Y/Y
UK –
08:30 – RPI Y/Y
EU – 09:00 – CPI Y/Y
EU –
09:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment
EU –
09:00 – Core CPI Y/Y
EU –
09:00 – German ZEW Economic Sentiment
US
12:30 – Core CPI M/M
US
12:30CPI M/M
US
12:30TIC Net Long-Term Transactions
US
17:00NAHB Housing Market Index
US
18:15FOMC Statement
US
18:15Federal Funds Rate

Wednesday September 17th:

UK – 08:30 – Claimant Count Change
UK –
08:30 – MPC Meeting Minutes
UK –
08:30 – Average Earnings Index Y/Y
UK –
08:30 – Unemployment Rate
EU –
09:00 – Trade Balance
UK –
10:00 - CBI Industrial Trends Orders
US
12:30Building Permits
US
12:30Current Account
US
12:30Housing Starts
US
12:30Crude Oil Inventories

Thursday September 18th:

EU – 08:00 – Italian Unemployment Rate
UK –
08:30 – Retail Sales M/M
UK –
08:30 – M4 Money Supply M/M
UK –
08:30 – Public Sector Net Borrowing
US
12:30Unemployment Claims
US
14:00Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
US
14:00CB Leading Index M/M
US
14:35Natural Gas Storage

Friday September 19th:

EU – 06:00 - German PPI M/M

EU – Europe wide
FR –
France
UK –
United Kingdom
US –
United States
GE – Germany

Oil Trading – Morning Update

Thursday, September 11th, 2008

The bearish technical picture continues as we are constantly seeing a pattern of lower lows with daily closes lower than the opening level. The moving averages, including the 100 day, are looking droopy to say the least. We still see the important $85 level as a target for the downside while on the upside a recovery above $121 would be needed to end this downtrend. The short and medium term trends are bearish and the long term remains bullish.

  1. Support: $98.10 (Yesterday’s low) Resistance: $104.40 (9 day moving average)
  2. Support: $98.00 (low of 20/03/08) Resistance: $104.14 (low of 02/09/08)
  3. Support: $96.92 (low of 04/03/08) Resistance: $102.06 (Yesterday’s high)

The Market continued its march southward taking the OPEC cut and the DOE draws in its stride. The current technical picture is bearish and this is backed up by the news from the monthly IEA report which had another downward revision in demand forecasts for this year and next. Traders are in effect saying “It doesn’t matter if there is less oil available because there will not be the demand for it anyway”. OPEC may be saying that they have done their bit to bring down the price of oil but in reality it’s the effect of the high price on economies which has curtailed demand and led to the current downtrend.
DOE Stock Figures (Change in millions bbls)

Crude -5.8 (-4.8) Distillate -1.3 (-2.2) Gasoline -6.5 (-4.3)

Oil Trading Update

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

As the chart pattern mentioned yesterday predicted, prices fell nearly $5 as the current downtrend continues. The psychological level of $100 was breached but the market managed to rally enough to close above that level, which will give some hope to the bulls. The market is stronger this morning but still trading in the lower half of yesterday’s range and if new lows are made today a test of the important $85 level, which is required to hold for the long term uptrend to remain in tact, is on the cards.The short and medium term trends are bearish and the long term remains bullish.

  1. Support: $98.34 (Yesterday’s low) Resistance: $106.76 (downtrend line)
  2. Support: $98.50 (high of 20/03/08) Resistance: $106.30 (9 day moving
  3. Support: $98.00 (low of 03/01/08) Resistance: $103.62 (Yesterday’s

OPEC announced a production cut of what will amount to 520,000 barrels a day this morning, which will come into effect in 40 days time. Hurricane Ike is gaining strength and heading towards the Mexican Gulf . Estimates for the release of today’s DOE figures are large draws in both Crude and the Products. Yet at time of press we are only trading up less than a Dollar from settlement. Why? Well the draw in stocks, if that is what we will see, is well expected as it will reflect the shutdowns last week due to Gustav. Traders will be aware that the OPEC increase is relatively small and that the producing countries do not have a good record at sticking to the Quotas. The underlying market weakness is not a production issue at all but is a product of the falling world demand.

DOE Stock Estimates (Change in millions bbls)
Crude -4.8 Distillate -2.2 Gasoline -4.3

Trading Releases This Week

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

Good morning everyone and I thought it would be useful to provide a trading calendar for this week as there are several important releases due out. The details are as follows :

Monday September 8th:

ALL – All – OPEC Meeting.
EU
– 08:30 – Sentix Investor Confidence.
UK – 08:30 – PPI Input M/M.
UK –
08:30 – PPI Output M/M.
US – 17:30 – FOMC Member Fisher Speaks.
US
– 19:00 – Consumer Credit M/M.
UK –
23:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y.
UK –
23:01 – RICS House Price Balance.
UK – 23:01 – NIESR GDP Estimate.

Tuesday September 9th:

ALL
AllOPEC Meeting.
GE –
06:00 – Trade Balance.
UK –
08:30 – Manufacturing Production M/M.
UK –
08:30 – Industrial Production M/M.
US –
14:00 – Pending Home Sales M/M.
US –
14:00 – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.
US –
14:00 – Wholesale Inventories M/M.

Wednesday September 10th:

ALLAllOPEC Meeting.
FR –
06:45 – Industrial Production M/M.
FR – 06:45 – Trade Balance.
UK –
08:30 – Trade Balance.
EU – 09:30 – ECB President Trichet Speak
UK –
14:30 – CB Leading Index M/M.
US –
14:35 – Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday September 11th:

EU –
06:45 - Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q.
EU –
08:00 - ECB Bulletin.
UK – 08:30 - BOE Inflation Attitudes.
UK –
08:30 - MPC Treasury Committee Hearings.
US – 12:30 - Trade Balance.
US –
12:30 - Unemployment Claims.
US –
12:30 - Import Prices M/M.
US – 14:35 - Natural Gas Storage.
US –
18:00 - ECB President Trichet Speaks.

Friday September 12th:

FR – 06:45 - CPI M/M.
EU –
09:00 - Industrial Production M/M.
EU –
09:00 - Employment Change Q/Q.
US –
12:30 - Retail Sales M/M.
US –
12:30 - Core Retail Sales M/M.
US – 12:30 - PPI M/M.
US –
12:30 - Core PPI M/M.
US –
13:55 - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
US – 13:55 - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
US –
14:00 - Business Inventories M/M.

EU – Europe wide
FR –
France
UK –
United Kingdom
US –
United States
GE – Germany

Comments (0)
Categories : Investing

Oil Price Tumbles

Tuesday, September 2nd, 2008

Frist day back after summer break (not that we have had any summer here in the UK as its still pouring with rain and freezing cold) the good news is that the oil price looks to have fallen off a cliff and we are now in serious danger of the price falling back below $100 dollars a barrel.  This is despite the tensions between Russia and the West and hurricane Gustav, which has now been downgraded.  A blessed relief to the citizens of Louisiana.

Significant price levels for oil are as follows:

Support: $109.17 (yesterday’s low)           Resistance: $115.50 (yesterday’s high)

Support: $108.42 (low of 01/05/08)           Resistance: $114.23 (9 day moving avg)

Support: $107.97 (high of 17/03/08)          Resistance: $113.92 (14 day moving avg)

From these numbers expect some short term consolidation and bearish medium term.  Longer term the picture is very uncertain given current dollar performance.  We also have to take account of forthcoming US presidential election which is too close to call.   As has been been mentioned in my currency blog a democratic win is usually perceived as dollar positive, whilst a win for the republicans usually results in dollar weakness.

Whatever happens in the next 8 weeks we can be sure it will continue to be bumpy but fascinating journey.

Comments (0)