Archive for March 2008

Banks Under Fire

Monday, March 24th, 2008

Last week the financial markets managed to reach a level of blind panic probably not seen since the great crash of 1929. Starting with the bail out of at Bear Stearns by J P Morgan the week ended with a concerted short selling guerilla attack on one of the UK’s leading retail bank, HBOS (Halifax Bank of Scotland). A rumour about a possible liquidity crisis at the bank was enough to plunge the share price by almost 20% and the originators are alleged to have made at least $100m from short selling.

It was only a concerted PR effort from the BOE – Mervyn King calling all news agencies to deny any crisis – and the FSA threatening legal action about market manipulation that the crisis was brought back under control. The prospect of a run on another UK bank was enough for the BOE to offer emergency funding to the banking industry.  This was immediately taken up and oversubscribed – so much for Mervyn lecturing others about the “moral hazard” of bail outs!

This latest episode in the credit crunch saga is further evidence of how bankers have managed simultaneously to ruin shareholders and investors with unsustainable business models and now taxpayers as government backed central banks have to step in with more and more funding to avoid financial armageddon.

Until calm returns to the to the banking sector such emergency funding will have to continue and as traders, investors and tax payers we will all continue to pay in one way or another.

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Cheltenham Gold Cup

Friday, March 14th, 2008

Many apologies for not posting for a few days which has been due to press interviews and a slot on a radio programme in the US talking about love, money and relationships! – fame at least!! However, life is now back to normal, even if the markets try to find some kind of equilibrium.

In the meantime real life does go on and today is one of my favourite’s as it Gold Cup Day at the Cheltenham festival.  For those of you not familiar with horse racing the Cheltenham Gold cup is the climax to the national hunt season where big hearted horses give their all over some ferocious jumps in Cheltenham.

This year’s Gold Cup is even more exciting as there are two favourites, Kauto Star and Denman and over £25 million has already been bet on this horse race.  Until recently horse racing and financial trading had little in common (other than most punters and traders losing!).  But this has now changed with the introduction of fixed odds trading which is based on simple odds as in horse racing.  Fixed odds trading in the financial markets allow traders and investors to bet on currencies, indices and shares with a fixed risk and reward ratio. In my view it provides the ideal way for new traders to learn about the markets and how to trade without losing your shirt, simply because your downside risk is limited from the start. Just as in a horse race, if you bet £10 then that is all you can lose, no more no less. Details of how I use this strategy will be appearing in one of the London financial newspapers on Monday and if you would like a copy of the article please just email me via the web site. I will also add the article to the web site in due course.

Peleton Crash Into a Hedge

Friday, March 7th, 2008

I have to confess that this week I have allowed myself a frisson of Schadenfreude when I read about the problems besetting the hedge fund, Peleton Partners. For those you who unware of the term it is translated in the Harper Collins German-English dictionary as “malicious glee or gloating”.

Peleton Partners a $3bn (£1.5bn) hedge fund run by former Goldman Sachs star traders has been forced to liquidate its two investment funds when they could no longer meet margin calls from the investment banks, despite one of their funds being last year’s best performers, netting returns of 87%. My glee was not at the investors’ expense, whose only crime was to believe the outrageous claims of companies such as Peleton. No, it was that finally those at the top of the financial food chain are beginning to feel some pain, especially as the majority of returns made by this company were on the backs of those tangled up in the sub prime mortgage debacle.  As mentioned before some sub primers  have been hit with interest rates of 18% – at a time when the Fed can’t cut rates fast enough.

A further amusing aspect of this particular story is that one of the partners of Peleton, Ron Beller and his wife, Jennifer Moses were victims of Joyti DeLaurey. During their time at  Goldman Sachs, Joyti was convicted of stealing £4.3m from this pair (and others) to fund a lavish lifestyle. At Joyti’s trial, Mr Beller famously told the jury that he only began ot suspect a fraud when he discovered his bank account was “one or two million light”!

In the meantime, Jennifer Moses was going to join Prime Minister Gordon Brown, as a special advisor but in the light of her husband’s troubles has decided to pass on his kind invitation.

To lose a few million once may be regarded as a misfortune. To lose a few billion a second time looks like carelessness.

Recession Has Arrived

Tuesday, March 4th, 2008

With so much going on in the financial markets it is sometimes difficult to know where to focus and on what to concentrate. Fortunately today its easy because we only have to read Warren Buffett’s annual letter to his shareholders for a clear and concise analysis of what is happening and what has gone wrong.  A summary of this letter as well as a list of his top ten investments tips can be found at the Telegraph online and should be required reading for anyone wanting to succeed in this industry.

We should also pay attention to his recent statement that from a “common sense standpoint” the US is in fact in recession, even though the official figures have not yet confirmed this fact.     This week’s employment data starting on Wednesday with the ADP (which measures the change in number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry) and culminating on Friday with Non Farm Payroll numbers and unemployment rate will go so way to confirming whether Warren is right or wrong.

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Categories : Investing