Following the emergency interest rate cut by the Fed last week the question being asked was whether the embarrassment at SocGen had anything do with the decision? Whilst the massive loss facing the French bank would be enough to temporarily spook any market is the bank merely using this event to cover up problems in other areas. Indeed the “rogue trader” at the centre of this storm, Jerome Kerviel, has insisted through his lawyers that he “did not commit any dishonest act”. They said SocGen wanted to “raise a smokescreen” to distract attention from losses it had made, “notably in the unbelievable sub-prime affair”. We can only wait and see.
Meanwhile the market moves on and this week is likely to be just as dramatic and possibly define the direction of the US dollar as well as equity and commodity market through to the spring. Not only do we have non farm payroll on Friday but on Wednesday we also have the ADP numbers and the Fed’s interest rate decision. If the employment figures are positive and the Fed cuts a further .50% thereby taking rates to 3% this will benefit both the equity market and the carry trade as the appetite for risk returns. The addition of personal consumption data, ISM and durable goods figures should also give traders the best possible picture of what is actually happening in the US economy and likely to happen in the short term.
Against this background it is not surprising that forex movements in all the pairs can appear somewhat random as the market waits to decide on the future direction of the major currencies.