I just thought it would be interesting this morning to look back on a couple of my recommended trades in the last few weeks, to check on progress.

The first of these was the EUR/NOK pair which I suggested would be a good short trade on the 27th and 28th June. At the time the pair were trading at 8.042 and subsequently fell over the next 2-3 weeks to a low of around 7.88, so if you followed this trade you should have taken a good number of pips. The pairs have since rallied, but are still trading below the entry level of the trade at 7.966. As the pair have now broken through the old support level, I expect the downward trend to continue, if you are still holding this trade open. Not a bad result and if you have closed out, now would be a good point to enter the trade short.
The other pair is the EUR/YEN – one of my favourites as a carry trade. I suggested going long the pair on 26th June at 165.54, and they subsequently reached a peak of 168.60. so again you should have taken some good pips here. Last week all the Yen pairs saw a pullback and the pair are now trading at 163.24. However, of more significance is the bullish engulfiing signal of yesterday, so expect prices to rise today. I hope you closed out profitably, and if so, now would be a good re-entry point for a long carry trade at 163.24. Good luck and please let me know how you are getting on – I love to hear from you all

Just a few thoughts about the above pair following last weeks trades. On the weekly chart this could be a pullback or even a reversal, and the pair certainly look very ‘toppy’ at this point. The candle last week was bearish engulfing, so expect some lower prices this week as a top seems to have been formed at 2.4650. We also seem to have had a gap down in prices over the weekend – never a good signal – so please be careful on this trade.
I hope that you took some profits last week, and as I suggested, once the level of 2.4730 was penetrated then lower prices were likely. With the pair now trading at the 2.4430 level, then this is clearly the case. If I were to take a short term view then I would probably be looking to trade short in the next few days, but remember, the cost of the trade then becomes negative, and is no longer a positive carry trade.

Good morning everyone, and I hope you all had a great weekend. I spent the time on a course to develop a deeper understanding of the psychology of trading. This will form the basis of another web site ( all free information as always ) which I hope will help you better understand the emotions involved in trading and how to control them.

I am now going to get on to one of my favourite hobby horses!! ( yes another one ). As you will have seen, the GBP USD has pulled back in the last few days from the highs of 2.06 and is now trading around 2.03. The so-called experts are now calling the top, and the market sentiment is now bearish – WHY??? – what has changed since last week. If you are a fundamental trader, have there been any siginifcant changes in the underlying fundamentals – answer NO – interest rates have not changed, the underlying US and UK economies remain essentially as they were the week before – have there been any statements in Europe, US or UK from anyone significant – NO!! The general muttering concerns the problems in the sub-prime market!! – as if this has anything to do with any market, forex or otherwise.

For the technical traders, the only signal we have had so far is on the weekly charts with a bearish engulfing signal based on last weeks fall in the pair. Whether this constiutes a long term reversal or merely a pullback before prices continue upwards, is far to early to say. In my view, a long term reversal will have only begun once the pair have penetrated the old tops at the 1.9500 level. In my view we are merely seeming some profit taking afte the last few weeks, before the pair continue upwards again. At some point in the 2.03 – 2.11 range they will peak and turn, and my view is that this will only occur once there is a major shift in fundamental economics, or rates, or both.

Phew – back from Italy with some ghastly people on the plane. I must be getting old but when flying was more of a luxury, most people new how to dress when they were travelling abroad ( or indeed home again ) With the advent of cheap flights those days seem to be long gone with dirty flip flops or trainers the order of the day for shoes. Men seem to travel in filthy tee shirts and shorts, wihile the women are not much better with scruffy rucksacks and unkempt hair!!. No I am not a snob, I just think that as the costs of flying have fallen, so have the standards. It doesn’t take much to look smart – the Italians seem to manage to look stylish in jeans and a shirt- the Brits do not unfortunately. I for one, long for the days when travel was considered an adventure, and you dressed accordingly, and no I do not expect people to travel in cocktail dresses and dinner jackets. On the last flight I was on someone decided to take their shoes off and stank the plane out – no thought of their fellow passengers, but only thinking of one person – themselves – indicative of how life is changing and how self centered and thoughless most people are nowadays. Sadly the breakdown in manners and courtesy are the first signals that civilised society as we know it is coming to an end!!

Of my hobby horse and on to the trading – as I suggested yesterday it was a good time to possibly take your profits off the table with a big fall on the day today. If you did, then this now represents a good point to re-enter the trade at a lower level particularly if it bounces off the support levels at 2.4730. I would wait for this level and if ii seems to be supported then buy again for the next ride up the escalator !!

Hi, just a quick update before I catch the flight home.

If you followed the trade of a couple of days ago, the pair have continued to climb higher, and are currently trading at 2.4919 – a very nice profit of almost 300 pips from the entry point I suggested on Monday this week.

I would keep the trade open, but if you feel you must take the profits then close out and wait for the next down bar, before re-entering the trade at a lower price.

Good luck and enjoy your trading.

Good morning from Italy, where the weather is lovely – I am flying back to the UK today so am bringing a boat with me to get around!!

For those of you who read my blog regularly, you will know that I have been short the EUR/CAD pair for several weeks. For those of you who trade shorter timescales than I do, I would suggest you trade short today, following the weakness signal of ten days ago., where after a small rally, a major upthrust occurred in the candle formation. This has now been confirmed by yesterdays significant down bar following a few days of trending sideways.
The pair are trading at 1.4280 currently and I would short this pair now, for some profits over the next few days. Watch for a bounce off the lows of previous trading at around 1.4100 – if this penetrates then I would leave the trade in place and wait for lower prices, as I am doing right now. Good luck, and you can always contact me via the web site.

This is still a good trade – for those of you who entered the trade when I did, after the breakout at the 88 level, then you could be sitting with potential profis of 1000 pips. Not bad for a few weeks work. One question I get asked many times is why I never quote profits in pounds or dollars etc – the answer is very simple – I have no idea what currency you are trading in your acount, or indeed how many contracts you have entered. On the above trade, even if you had only taken a very conservative view and entered 1 contract, then you would be looking at several hundred dollars, just for a single contract. Alternatively, had you felt more bullish, you may have bought 5,10 or more contracts.

The level of risk you take is entirely up to you – even those of you who are learning to trade using mini accounts where contract size is a tenth of normal, you can still make money withou taking silly risks. I accept that a 1 pip movement and a profit of 10 cents is hardly likely to set the pulses racing, but it is a good way to learn, and not to lose all your money. And even on a long term trade like this, you could still make a 100 dollars, even from a mini account – a good and safe way to learn – that’s my view anyway. I am not a great believer in paper trading which never works as it has no emotion. Learn usiing a mini account – most Forex and FX brokers now offer them.

If you have any other questions you can always contact me via my site at www.making-bread.co.uk and I will always do my best to answer. I will be putting up a new site devoted to writing a trading plan ( how boring I hear you say ) – maybe, but essential if you are to survive – I will post the details here when it is ready. Good luck with the above trade, and it only shows that you can even make money in a mini – account!

I have just come back to the flat from the marina to check the progress of this trade.

The pair have now pushed up through the 2.4800 level and are now trading at 2.4810. Given that this is a huge up bar, and that the old top has been penetrated, I would now leave this trade on for a few days. The profit on the table at the moment is approaching 200 pips, so you should have made plenty of money, even with a minimum trade of one contract. The beauty of the trade ofcourse is that you are making money on the carry trade as well – a double whammy. It is very simliar to when I used to trade options – I was always looking for a triple whammy of keeping the option premium, holding on to the stock and also picking up a dividend on the shares themselves – difficult to achieve but it used to happen occassionaly.

Anyway – I hope you followed this trade – I’m off for a cup of tea and cake on the terrace while I look at the sea as the sun goes down on the horizon!!

Hello everyone, and I hope you all had a good weekend. I’m in Italy at the moment having a few days holiday by the sea – lovely – weather is perfect.

I just thought I would update you on the trade I suggested on Friday. I have just checked the trade and the pair are tading at 2.4787. At an entry level of 2.4628, that’s around 150 pips profit – not bad for a weekend’s work ( or in my case holiday ) – it probably pays for the entire trip!!

The pair seem to have broken above the previou old top I was concerned about , so I would suggest leaving it for the hext few hours and having a look once the US data is out today. I’m ashamed to say that I have no idea what is due – dreadful really!!

Anyway, enjoy the trade and keep and eye on it – you should make some good profits before closing this one out.